Trading strategies comprehend the analysis of the conditions of the market, and when these conditions are coherent with the trading model of the strategy of trading that we have chosen, the entry can take place with its stop loss and take profit, always helped by the money management policy.
From our studies that has been led during the last 10 years the fact emerges that, in the long period, every strategy has a 50% of possibilities of success, this means that after 10000 transactions with a risk/profit rate 1:1, 50% of the transactions are in profit and 50% are in loss, with the exception of those strategies that does not have any logical method or having in themselves ant conceptual errors, and that for these reasons give very bad results.
Other strategies that are based on a risk/profit rate with a different ratio (for instance risk 1 to gain 3 or risk 3 to gain 1), even if give a distribution of results apparently different, in the long period make a compensation of the losses with the gains. This happens also with those strategies that are based on the distribution of the market prices, operating with fixed sizes but stop losses and take profits variable: according to the different moments, these ones have periods of strong gain and instead difficult periods, but in the long period they too, register a compensation.
In fact, from the studies led by T.I.C. Ltd, we have found some correct constants and discriminatory factors in order to establish the various phases of the market, and consequently to be able to adopt a certain model of analysis in a certain moment.
For this comparison, a proportion is thus generated between the variability of the datas produced and the correctness of the statistical model, that is a coefficient of determination (known as R2) as equal as possible to 0,9.
The peculiarity of T.I.C. Ltd’s softwares is to be able to establish when the market is in a stage of too high level of uncertainty, that invalidates any model of analysis.
This discriminatory factor, that cannot be detected in the graph, is indipendent from the coefficient of determination registered until that moment, and founds its basis on Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.
This analysis is possible because our softwares can apply the Principle that has been found by the Nobel for the Physics, the German Werner Karl Heisenberg, on the quantum mechanics: “The measure of two conjugate variables as the position and momentum or energy and time (in our case they are time and price), cannot be made without an uncertainty that is unavoidable”.
The Market behaves like a physical system, and no wonder about that, because it is the whole of all the different operators’ decisions, thus we can attribute to it a certain form of life and we must consequently take into account Heisenberg’s discoveries.
For this reason, whether the prices that we are examining in a certain time frame should go beyond a certain limit of the standard deviation, then T.I.C. Ltd’s softwares can establish when and if a too important uncertainty, and consequently a decrease of the coefficient R2 , is occurring.